The U.S. Department of the Treasury has released its latest estimates for privately-held net marketable borrowing for the last quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026.
For the October–December 2025 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $569 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, with an assumed cash balance of $850 billion at the end of December. This estimate is $21 billion less than what was announced in July 2025, a change attributed mainly to a higher beginning-of-quarter cash balance, partially offset by lower projected net cash flows. If not for this higher starting balance, the current borrowing estimate would be $20 billion above the July projection.
Looking ahead to January–March 2026, Treasury projects it will borrow $578 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, again assuming an end-of-March cash balance of $850 billion.
During July–September 2025, Treasury borrowed $1.058 trillion and ended that quarter with a cash balance of $891 billion. In comparison, its July estimate was for $1.007 trillion in borrowing and a closing cash balance of $850 billion. The difference—$50 billion more in actual borrowing—was due primarily to a higher end-of-quarter cash balance and lower net cash flows. Excluding the impact from the larger-than-expected closing balance, actual borrowing was $10 billion higher than previously estimated.
Additional details about financing plans related to Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding are scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, November 5, 2025.
Privately-held net marketable borrowing figures exclude rollovers (auction “add-ons”) of Treasury securities held in the System Open Market Account (SOMA) but include financing required because of SOMA redemptions. Secondary market purchases by SOMA do not directly affect these numbers; however, when such securities mature—and if the Federal Reserve does not redeem any maturing securities—the amount raised can increase through higher SOMA add-ons at auction. Buybacks are not expected to have a significant effect on privately-held net marketable borrowing as new issuance replaces bought-back securities.
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