The U.S. Department of the Treasury has announced its current estimates for privately-held net marketable borrowing for the first two quarters of 2025.
For the January to March 2025 quarter, the Treasury expects to borrow $815 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-March cash balance of $850 billion. This estimate is $9 billion lower than previously announced in October 2024, primarily due to a higher beginning-of-quarter cash balance, partially offset by lower net cash flows.
In the following quarter from April to June 2025, borrowing is expected to be $123 billion with an assumed end-of-June cash balance also at $850 billion.
During the October to December 2024 quarter, the Treasury borrowed $620 billion and ended with a cash balance of $722 billion. This was higher than their initial estimate of $546 billion in borrowing and an assumed ending cash balance of $700 billion. The increase in borrowing was attributed largely to lower net cash flows and a higher ending cash balance.
Further details regarding Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding will be released on Wednesday, February 5, 2025.
