The U.S. Department of the Treasury has released its latest estimates for privately-held net marketable borrowing for the first half of 2026.
For the January to March 2026 quarter, Treasury projects it will borrow $574 billion in privately-held net marketable debt. This estimate assumes an end-of-March cash balance of $850 billion. The figure is $3 billion lower than what was announced in November 2025, a change attributed mainly to a higher beginning-of-quarter cash balance, which was partially offset by lower projected net cash flows. Treasury also noted that if not for the higher-than-expected starting cash balance, the current quarter’s borrowing estimate would be $19 billion higher than previously announced.
Looking ahead to April through June 2026, Treasury expects to borrow $109 billion in privately-held net marketable debt with an assumed end-of-June cash balance of $900 billion.
Treasury reported that during the October–December 2025 quarter, it borrowed $550 billion and ended with a cash balance of $873 billion. In comparison, its November estimate had anticipated borrowing of $569 billion and an end-of-December cash balance of $850 billion. The actual borrowing came in $20 billion lower than expected due primarily to higher net cash flows, although this was partly offset by a higher-than-assumed end-of-quarter cash balance. Excluding the impact from this larger ending balance, actual borrowing was $42 billion below the previous announcement.
Additional details on Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding will be made available at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, February 4, 2026.
A footnote from Treasury clarified that privately-held net marketable borrowing excludes rollovers (auction “add-ons”) of securities held in SOMA but includes financing required because of SOMA redemptions. It also stated that secondary market purchases by SOMA do not directly affect privately-held net marketable borrowing; however, when these securities mature and assuming no redemption by the Federal Reserve, they would increase cash raised at auction through increased add-on amounts. Buybacks are not expected to have significant effects as new issuance replaces bought-back securities.
