As Texas and other Republican-led states move to redraw congressional district maps ahead of the 2026 election, California is considering a similar approach in response. The redistricting efforts are part of a broader political contest that highlights the current polarization between the two major parties.

Eric Schickler, a political scientist at the University of California, Berkeley, and co-director of the university’s Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS), explained that these actions reflect an effort by both sides to maximize their political advantage through gerrymandering. “Republicans are making it clear,” Schickler said in an interview. “They’re going to push every advantage they have now in order to hold onto the House of Representatives. And Democrats basically have a limited set of options to counter them.”

Schickler, who has co-authored "Partisan Nation: The Dangerous New Logic of American Politics in a Nationalized Era" with fellow Berkeley professor Paul Pierson, will participate in an IGS panel on September 16 discussing challenges facing democracy in California.

Gerrymandering and related tactics such as vote suppression and misinformation have long been used by both parties but are now seen as contributing to an increasingly unstable political environment. Schickler described this dynamic: “With stacking the deck, the basic idea is you’re trying to insulate your party from bad election results, make it more likely that you’ll win the election, even if you’re possibly winning fewer votes overall. And so certainly gerrymandering is a standard practice to try to stack the deck.”

Recent years have seen Republicans with more opportunities for redistricting due largely to their control over more state legislatures and greater party unity on these issues. Courts have generally supported Republican-led efforts as well.

According to Schickler, if California does not act while Texas and other states proceed with partisan redistricting, Republicans could gain up to 11 or 12 seats in Congress—making it much harder for Democrats to win back a majority even if they secure more votes nationally. Passing Proposition 50 could help offset some Republican gains but would not fully balance them out.

“There certainly is talk about it in Illinois, there’s talk about it in Maryland, talk about it in New York," he said regarding potential Democratic responses elsewhere. "There are pretty big obstacles in each of those cases though."

California’s current use of an independent commission for drawing districts has led to increased competition and turnover but may be reconsidered due to pressure from national party dynamics. Schickler noted: “That’s been successful in a lot of ways. It’s made for more competition than we had before. It allowed there to be more turnover in the Legislature, more turnover in Congress.”

He also pointed out that Proposition 50 appears favorable based on polling data showing about 48% support among registered voters; however, undecided voters tend toward rejection when faced with ballot measures after negative campaigning begins.

Schickler added: “If one wanted to be a pessimist for Prop. 50, you would look at ballot-proposition campaigns and see that most undecideds tend to vote no in the end — either they don’t vote or they vote no... That’s why it’s not a slam dunk.”

Democrats may challenge Texas’ new maps on racial grounds but face difficulty given recent Supreme Court decisions limiting such claims.

“This court has certainly made a lot of decisions favorable to Republicans and conservatives," Schickler said regarding legal prospects. "I don’t see how they could uphold the Texas redistricting and not uphold what California does.”

The debate raises questions for Democratic-leaning states using nonpartisan commissions—whether continuing this approach might disadvantage their party nationally as partisan redistricting becomes common elsewhere.

“Do we want to continue using these nonpartisan commissions? Even if we like it for our own state, does it weaken our party nationally? That’s a question that people are going to start asking and this is maybe a first instance of that,” Schickler concluded.