Recent revisions to monthly payroll employment data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) have drawn attention due to their size, prompting renewed discussion about the reliability of economic data. The BLS noted in its August release that revisions for May and June 2025 were “larger than normal,” with total nonfarm payroll employment gains revised downward by 125,000 jobs for May and 133,000 jobs for June. These adjustments reduced the overall gains for each month to fewer than 20,000 jobs. Combined with a reported gain of 73,000 jobs in July, concerns have been raised about potential weakness in the labor market.

A recent analysis by Sylvain Leduc and Luiz Edgard Oliveira from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco examines these payroll employment data revisions in historical context. Their updated study uses methodology from a March 2025 analysis and draws on the Philadelphia Fed’s Real-Time Data Set to assess how volatile recent data are compared with previous decades.

According to their findings, “these revisions remain similar to other large revisions when compared with historical data over the last 60 years. This suggests that incoming data are not generally subject to greater fluctuations—and thus may not reflect greater uncertainty—than in the past.”

The authors previously found that short-term revisions in both payroll employment and consumer price index (CPI) inflation were roughly consistent over recent years when compared with periods before the pandemic. They wrote, “Our findings ease some concerns about the reliability of the data and that monetary policy may become too gradual.” During times of heightened uncertainty, policymakers might wait for more evidence before adjusting policy if they view incoming data as less reliable—a factor that could affect monetary policy timing.

Concerns over economic data reliability are not new. In June, The Economist published an article questioning whether U.S. economic statistics were becoming less clear. The BLS also issued a note in July addressing reductions in CPI-related data collection.

Leduc and Oliveira’s updated figures show that average monthly first revisions to payroll employment gains during January–June 2025 are within historic norms despite being somewhat higher than those seen in 2023 and 2024 on average. While June’s revision was larger than those from prior months or recent averages, similarly large changes have occurred multiple times since 1990—including as recently as December 2023 and January 2024.

Their analysis also finds that these first-monthly revisions are generally symmetric across positive and negative changes dating back to November 1964; substantial outliers like June’s revision occur but are statistically uncommon (about a one-in-fourteen chance).

In conclusion, while some recent downward adjustments have been sizable relative to last year or so, Leduc and Oliveira state: “over the last 60 years, there have been examples of first revisions that were of similar or greater magnitude.” Their results indicate current payroll employment data continue to fall within historic ranges for volatility.

“The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the management of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,” according to Leduc and Oliveira.