The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data has published the December 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations. The survey reveals mixed results in inflation expectations, with short-term expectations remaining unchanged, medium-term expectations rising, and long-term expectations decreasing. Additionally, job turnover expectations have declined.

Key findings from the survey include that median inflation expectations stayed at 3.0% for one year ahead, rose to 3.0% from 2.6% over three years, and fell to 2.7% from 2.9% over five years. "The increase at the three-year horizon was broad-based across age, education, and income groups," while "the decline at the five-year horizon was driven by respondents below age 40." Home price growth predictions increased slightly to 3.1%, while commodity price forecasts varied.

In labor market projections, expected earnings growth decreased slightly to 2.8%. Unemployment rate concerns dropped marginally to a mean probability of 34.6%. The perceived risk of job loss fell to 11.9%, with voluntary job separation likelihood also declining to 18.2%. However, confidence in finding new employment if needed dropped significantly.

Regarding household finances, expected income growth reduced slightly but remained above pre-pandemic levels at 2.8%. Spending growth predictions increased modestly to 4.8%. Credit access perceptions worsened compared to a year ago, with more respondents anticipating tighter conditions moving forward.

"The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased" broadly across demographics and equaled previous highs seen in September 2024 and April 2020.

The Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) is an internet-based study involving around 1,300 households nationwide each month for up to a year per participant.

For more details on this survey or its methodology, contact Mariah Measey at (347)978-3071 or via email at Mariah.Measey@ny.frb.org.