The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data has published the October 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations. The survey indicates a slight decline in households' inflation expectations across short-, medium-, and longer-term horizons. Labor market expectations have improved, with a lower perceived likelihood of higher unemployment and job loss, alongside a higher likelihood of finding employment if laid off. Perceptions of credit access and future credit access have also improved, with a reduced probability of missing minimum debt payments over the next three months.
Key findings from the October 2024 Survey include:
In terms of inflation, median expectations fell at all three horizons. One-year-ahead inflation expectations dropped by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9%, three-year-ahead by 0.2 percentage point to 2.5%, and five-year-ahead by 0.1 percentage point to 2.8%. The measure of disagreement among respondents declined at all horizons.
Regarding labor market expectations, median one-year-ahead earnings growth remained steady at 2.8% in October. Mean unemployment expectations decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 34.5%, marking the lowest reading since February 2022. The mean perceived probability of job loss decreased slightly, while the probability of voluntarily leaving a job increased marginally.
Household finance insights show that expected household income growth was unchanged at 3.0% in October, while spending growth expectations held at 4.9%. Perceptions about credit access improved compared to last year, with an increasing share reporting easier credit availability.
"The SCE contains information about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing, and education to behave," according to the survey overview.
The Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) is conducted online with a nationally representative rotating panel comprising approximately 1,300 household heads who participate for up to twelve months.
For more details on the survey methodology or interactive chart guide, interested parties can contact Connor Munsch at (347) 224-1175 or via email at Connor.Munsch@ny.frb.org.
