Inflation expectations among U.S. business leaders have risen in the fourth quarter of 2024, as reported by the Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations (SoFIE), a publication from the Cleveland Fed’s Center for Inflation Research.
In October 2024, CEOs and other top executives projected that inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), would reach 3.8 percent over the next year. This marks an increase from 3.4 percent recorded in July 2024. The quarterly survey collects data from a broad panel of firms within the manufacturing and services sectors. According to the Cleveland Fed, these inflation expectations are significant because they can affect the pricing strategies of firms, which subsequently influence overall inflation trends.
The SoFIE survey gathers quarterly data on expected CPI inflation for the upcoming year and annually queries respondents about their beliefs regarding average CPI inflation over five years, CPI inflation over the past year, perceptions of the Federal Reserve’s inflation target, and the likelihood of CPI inflation exceeding 5% in the next year.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is one of twelve regional Reserve Banks that form part of the Federal Reserve System along with the Board of Governors in Washington DC. As part of its mandate, it participates in monetary policy formulation, supervises banking organizations, provides payment services to financial institutions and to the US Treasury, and supports various Federal Reserve operations across its jurisdiction.
Serving Ohio, western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky, and northern West Virginia through branches in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, the Cleveland Fed also engages in research, outreach, and educational activities aimed at enhancing community well-being across its district.
For more information on SoFIE: Survey of Firms' Inflation Expectations (clevelandfed.org).
Chuck Soder can be contacted at chuck.soder@clev.frb.org or via phone at 216.672.2798.
