The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data has released its September 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations. The survey indicates that while short-term inflation expectations remain stable, there is a slight increase in medium- and long-term inflation expectations. Additionally, the likelihood of voluntary job separation and finding employment after job loss has risen.
The survey reveals several key findings. Inflation expectations at the one-year horizon stayed at 3.0%, but increased to 2.7% from 2.5% at the three-year horizon, and to 2.9% from 2.8% at the five-year horizon. "The increases at the three- and five-year horizons were most pronounced for respondents with at most a high school degree," according to the report.
Median home price growth expectations decreased slightly by 0.1 percentage point to 3.0%. Year-ahead commodity price expectations saw mixed changes, with food prices increasing by 0.1 percentage point to 4.5%, while gas prices fell by 0.2 percentage points to 3.4%.
In terms of labor market expectations, median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth dropped by 0.1 percentage point to 2.8%. Unemployment expectations declined broadly across different education and income groups, with mean unemployment probability decreasing by 1.5 percentage points to 36.2%.
Household finance insights showed a decline in median expected household income growth by 0.1 percentage point to 3.0%. Perceptions about credit access improved compared to last year, with fewer respondents reporting tighter conditions.
Delinquency expectations continued their upward trend, reaching their highest level since April 2020, as "the average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased for the fourth consecutive month."
The Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) provides insights into consumer outlooks on various economic factors such as inflation, job prospects, earnings growth, spending behavior, and credit access.
For further details on this survey or its methodology, interested parties can contact Connor Munsch at (347)224-1175 or via email at Connor.Munsch@ny.frb.org.
