CFOs remain largely optimistic about their economic trajectory as they plan for the last quarter of 2024, according to The CFO Survey, a collaboration of Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta.
Despite increased concerns around the health of the overall economy and some uncertainty related to the upcoming election, respondents said they still expect employment and revenue growth in the third quarter. In the survey that closed on Sept. 6, about 450 financial executives reported little change in optimism about the economy or about their own firm prospects.
“In spite of uncertainty in the economy, firms still expect a soft landing,” said Sonya Ravindranath Waddell, vice president and economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. “Financial executives expect to see growth in their employment and revenues through the year as firms continue to invest in the infrastructure that they need not just to continue operations, but to increase capacity and offer new products. In addition, expectations for price growth continue to come down into more normal territory.”
But there are headwinds. About 30 percent of firms reported postponing, scaling down, or canceling investment plans due to uncertainty around the upcoming election. In addition to the political climate, respondents cited other concerns such as the overall health of the economy and future demand.
When asked, about a quarter of firms said that access to or cost of financing would constrain their capital spending in the next 12 months — a response that was more common among small firms than large firms. On average, financially constrained firms would plan to invest almost 40 percent more on capital relative to their current spending plans if constraints were removed.
Nonetheless, the share of firms intending to invest in the next six months did not change much since the first quarter of this year. In this new survey, more than a third of firms responded that they intend to invest in structures within six months while two-thirds intend to invest in equipment. Although most firms report investing mainly for repair or replacement purposes, many also indicated plans for increasing capacity and offering new products or services.
The CFO Survey is issued by Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta. The latest survey results along with historical data can be found at www.cfosurvey.org.
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