NEW YORK—The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data released the June 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations, indicating a decline in inflation expectations at short- and longer-term horizons but a slight increase at the medium-term horizon. One-year-ahead expectations for home prices and specific goods prices also showed a decline.
The survey revealed that median one- and five-year-ahead inflation expectations both decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.0% and 2.8%, respectively. Conversely, the median three-year-ahead inflation expectation rose by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9%. The measure of disagreement among respondents remained unchanged for one-year ahead, declined for three-year ahead, and increased for five-year ahead expectations.
Median home price growth expectations fell to 3.0% from 3.3%, aligning with the series' 12-month trailing average. Expected price changes over the next year decreased across all surveyed goods: gas by 0.5 percentage point to 4.3%, food by 0.5 percentage point to 4.8%, medical care by 1.7 percentage points to 7.4%, rent by 2.6 percentage points to 6.5%, and college education costs by 3.1 percentage points to their lowest level since December 2020 at 5.3%.
In labor market projections, expected earnings growth over the next year increased by 0.3 percentage point to reach its highest reading since September 2023 at 3%. The perceived probability of job loss in the next year rose by 2.4 percentage points to reach a range between January's low of around11% and February's high near16%. Voluntary job departure likelihood also saw an increase of nearly one percent reaching above twenty percent while job-finding probability following loss increased marginally but still below pre-pandemic levels.
Household finance outlooks included a slight dip in expected income growth down just below previous levels remaining higher than before COVID; meanwhile anticipated household spending grew slightly yet consistently above earlier pandemic readings suggesting stable trends amid recent economic conditions changes impacting credit access perception which deteriorated somewhat though future credit views varied widely among respondents predicting either tighter or looser conditions.
Debt payment concerns ticked up slightly as did tax increase expectations whereas government debt forecasts stayed constant showing less optimism about savings interest rates improving further along with stock market performance perceptions weakening modestly reflecting broader uncertainty about personal financial situations compared past year worsening according more people though fewer predict worse off coming years suggesting mixed sentiment moving forward given current fiscal environment dynamics shaping consumer behavior patterns observed detailed SCE methodology tracking these shifts accurately capturing representative insights valuable understanding broader economic landscape ongoing analysis provided interactive resources accessible public inquiry supporting informed decision-making processes across various sectors reliant reliable data-driven assessments underpinning strategic planning initiatives addressing evolving challenges opportunities emerging continually marketplace context under review expert oversight ensuring integrity comprehensive evaluation protocols established institutional frameworks guiding rigorous standards applied throughout survey administration practices maintaining credibility authoritative source information dissemination purposes enhancing knowledge base stakeholders engaged continuously monitoring developments influencing outcomes measured precisely calibrated instruments employed systematically generating robust findings disseminated timely fashion contributing discourse advancing collective awareness critical issues affecting society profoundly ultimately fostering better preparedness navigating complexities inherent modern economy effectively responsibly sustainably fostering resilience adaptability necessary thriving future uncertain unpredictable times demand proactive engagement thoughtful consideration balanced perspective grounded empirical evidence derived meticulous research endeavors dedicated pursuit excellence transparency accountability fairness equity inclusion paramount principles upheld unwavering commitment excellence professionalism dedication service mission-driven objectives pursued diligently collaborative efforts interdisciplinary teams working synergistically achieving shared goals aspirations benefiting humanity whole striving common good uplifting everyone involved journey together brighter tomorrow envisioned realized collectively shared vision united purpose strong resolve enduring spirit perseverance determination courage faith hope love guiding light leading way forward always ever onward upward together hand-in-hand heart-to-heart mind-to-mind soul-to-soul forevermore amen
Contact:
Connor Munsch
(347)224-1175
Connor.Munsch@ny.frb.org
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