The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data has released the April 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations. The survey indicates that short-term and long-term inflation expectations have risen, while medium-term expectations have decreased. Home price growth expectations have reached their highest level since July 2022, and spending growth expectations have also increased.
The survey reveals that median inflation expectations rose to 3.3% from 3.0% at the one-year horizon, fell to 2.8% from 2.9% at the three-year horizon, and increased to 2.8% from 2.6% at the five-year horizon. Median home price growth expectations rose to 3.3%, marking a significant increase after seven consecutive months of stagnation at 3.0%.
In terms of labor market predictions, median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth decreased slightly by 0.1 percentage point to 2.7%. Mean unemployment expectations increased by 1 percentage point to 37.2%, while the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next year decreased by 0.6 percentage point to 15.1%.
On household finance, median expected growth in household income declined marginally by 0.1 percentage point to reach a steady figure of 3%. Meanwhile, median household spending growth expectations rose by 0.2 percentage point to hit a new high of 5.2%.
About the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), it is an internet-based survey that provides insight into Americans’ views about job prospects and earnings growth as well as their expectations about future spending and access to credit.
For further information on the SCE, please refer to an overview of the survey methodology here, the interactive chart guide, and the survey questionnaire.
Contact
Mariah Measey
(347)978-3071
Mariah.Measey@ny.frb.org
