The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has projected that the number of existing-home sales will reach 4.71 million in 2024, marking a 13.5% increase from the anticipated 4.1 million in 2023.
In a press release issued by NAR, Chief Economist Lawrence Yun anticipates Austin, Texas to be the leading real estate market in 2024 and beyond. Yun also predicts that the median home price will rise to $389,500 in 2024, signifying an increase of 0.9% from 2023. Despite the surge in home prices, he expects the consumer price index to remain low due to further reductions in rental prices. He also highlighted that out of the top ten real estate markets with the highest pent-up housing demand in 2024, Texas has three areas among the top six metropolitan regions.
"The demand for housing will recover from falling mortgage rates and rising income," said Yun. "In addition, housing inventory is expected to rise by around 30% as more sellers begin to list after delaying selling over the past two years. The selected top ten U.S. markets will experience faster recovery in home sales." Besides a stronger housing market, Yun also forecasts a rise of 1.5% in U.S GDP which would help stave off a recession. However, he predicts a slowdown in job creation with only 1.7 million new jobs being created in 2024 compared to the creation of 2.7 million jobs in 2023 and 4.8 million jobs in 2022.
According to a report by NAR released this November, there was an uptick in existing-home sales which ended five consecutive months of decline. Sales decreased in both Northeast and West regions but saw an increase in Midwest and South regions. For the first time since August 10th, the average rate for a fixed 30-year mortgage fell below 7% to an average of 6.95% as of December 14th.
