The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released its Texas Employment Forecast on June 16, indicating that jobs will increase 2.8% in 2023, with an 80% confidence band of 2.2 to 3.3%, which was up from the previous month’s forecast of 2.6% growth.
“Despite economic headwinds, strong employment growth continued in May as the state added close to 41,200 jobs,” Luis Torres, Dallas Fed senior business economist, said in a release from the Federal Reserve bank. “Texas job growth is a solid 3.6% year to date as the labor market continues to defy expectations of slowing.”
The prediction is based on the average of four models, including estimated national GDP, oil futures prices, Texas and U.S. leading indices and more, according to the release. Texas created 41,200 jobs in May, after another 28,700 jobs in April, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll data.
"Strength in May was led by a surge in energy sector employment and by increases in professional and business services and health care services jobs," Torres said in the release. "Leisure and hospitality and manufacturing were the only two sectors to report job losses.”
According to the Dallas Fed report, the state will add 376,800 jobs this year, bringing the employment rate to 14.0 million by December. While April growth was down to 2.5%, employment rose strongly in May, up by 3.6% month over month.
Unemployment mainly increased in Texas' major metro areas, such as Dallas-Plano-Irving, San Antonio-New Braunfels, Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Austin-Round Rock, El Paso, Fort Worth-Arlington, Laredo, Brownsville-Harlingen and McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, the Fed said.
The Texas unemployment rate was 4.1% in May, the Fed reported, up from 4.0% in April, the Dallas Fed reported. Additional data on the Texas Employment Forecast, seasonally adjusted jobs data and metro unemployment rates is available on the Dallas Fed website, the report added.
