An employment forecast by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas predicts that job growth is slowing. 

According to a press release by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, a recent Texas Employment Forecast projects that jobs will grow by 2.4% in 2023, with an 80% confidence interval of 1.8 to 3.1%. This is less than the previous month's prediction of a 2.8% annual increase.

“The slower job growth in March and downward revisions to February’s number suggest the labor market may be cooling off after growing at record-high rates for two years,” said Luis Torres, Dallas Fed senior business economist, according to the press release. “The March employment data were notable in that construction and energy employment bounced back, while growth in professional and business services, financial activities and information was notably weaker.” 

The prediction is based on the average of four models, including estimated national GDP, oil futures prices and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes. According to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment figures issued by the Dallas Fed, Texas created 33,600 jobs in March, a decrease from 36,200 jobs in February.

The Dallas Fed report also predicts that the state will add 332,500 jobs this year, bringing the employment rate to 14.1 million by December 2023. Texas employment increased by 3% month over month in March, following a significant downward revision to 3.2% in February. 

According to seasonally adjusted data from the Dallas Fed, the unemployment rate decreased in five of Texas' largest metro regions, including El Paso, Fort Worth-Arlington, Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Laredo and San Antonio-New Braunfels, but increased in Brownsville–Harlingen and McAllen–Edinburg–Mission. 

The unemployment rate overall for Texas stayed flat at 4% for the month of March.