The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data has released its November 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations. The survey indicates a slight increase in inflation expectations across short-, medium-, and longer-term horizons, alongside improved optimism regarding financial situations among households.
In November, median inflation expectations rose by 0.1 percentage point at all three horizons: one-year-ahead expectations increased to 3.0%, three-year-ahead to 2.6%, and five-year-ahead to 2.9%. Notably, the increase in one- and three-year expectations was driven by those with a college degree, while those without saw a decline.
Labor market findings reveal that median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations climbed by 0.2 percentage point to 3.0%, largely influenced by individuals without a college degree. Meanwhile, mean unemployment expectations increased slightly to 35.0%, remaining below the past year’s average.
Household finance metrics show an uptick in expected income growth by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1%. Conversely, spending growth expectations fell to their lowest since April 2021 at 4.7%. Perceptions about credit access remained stable compared to last year, with some improvement in future credit availability.
Other insights from the survey include a decrease in the perceived probability of missing minimum debt payments over the next three months, dropping to its lowest level since June 2024 at 13.2%. Additionally, the mean perceived probability of higher U.S. stock prices in twelve months rose by 1.3 percentage points to 40.4%.
The Survey of Consumer Expectations provides detailed information on consumer outlooks concerning inflation, prices for essential goods and services, job prospects, earnings growth, and access to credit across various demographics.
For more information about the survey methodology or data interpretation tools available through interactive charts and questionnaires, interested parties can contact Connor Munsch at (347) 224-1175 or via email at Connor.Munsch@ny.frb.org.
