The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data has published the April 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations. The survey reveals mixed inflation expectations and a decline in household financial outlooks.
Inflation expectations remained stable at 3.6% for the one-year horizon, rose to 3.2% for the three-year horizon, and fell to 2.7% for the five-year horizon. “Median home price growth expectations rose by 0.3 percentage point to 3.3%,” with notable increases in the West census region.
Year-ahead commodity price expectations varied, with gas prices expected to rise by 0.3 percentage points and medical care costs by 0.8 percentage points, while food prices are expected to decrease slightly.
Labor market expectations showed a downturn, with median expected earnings growth dropping to 2.5%, its lowest since December 2023. Unemployment expectations increased slightly, reaching their highest level since April 2020.
Household finance perceptions also worsened, with expected income growth decreasing to its lowest since April 2021. “Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago deteriorated sharply in April.”
The Survey of Consumer Expectations provides insights into consumer views on inflation, job prospects, and spending behaviors across various demographics.
For more information on the survey methodology or specific inquiries, contact Mariah Measey at (347) 978-3071 or via email at Mariah.Measey@ny.frb.org.
