Economic optimism among chief financial officers has decreased in the first quarter of 2025, according to the CFO Survey. This survey is a joint effort by Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta. The index measuring economic optimism fell from 66.0 in the fourth quarter of 2024 to 62.1 in the first quarter of 2025.
Sonya Ravindranath Waddell, vice president and economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, commented on these findings: “Uncertainty and trade policy were clearly on the minds of CFOs in the first quarter CFO Survey.” She noted that nearly one-third of respondents expressed concerns about tariffs, which led to lower expectations for GDP growth, revenue growth, employment growth, and higher expectations for price growth in 2025.
The survey also highlighted that almost a third of the 400 responding firms reported concerns about trade policy or tariffs during this period—a significant increase from previous quarters. One commercial builder stated, “Tariffs are a major concern … the potential cost escalation of imported raw materials will negatively impact us.” Another respondent added that tariffs are causing price increases in steel.
Some firms have indicated plans to adapt their strategies due to these challenges. Nearly 30 percent plan to diversify supply chains, while others are considering finding new domestic or foreign suppliers.
Despite these issues, expectations for individual firm performance did not decline as much as overall economic optimism. The own-firm optimism index fell slightly from 71.3 to 68.4.
The latest results from this survey can be accessed at www.cfosurvey.org.
