CFOs in the United States remain concerned about tariffs and are anticipating price increases of more than 3 percent in 2026, according to findings from The CFO Survey. The survey is a collaboration between Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta. This quarter’s results are based on responses from 548 executives collected between November 11 and December 1.
The survey found that tariffs continue to be the top concern among CFOs, though the level of concern has lessened since last quarter. Other leading concerns include demand for products and services, labor quality and skills mismatch, monetary policy, and inflation.
“Last quarter, we learned that CFOs expected the upward pressure from tariffs on prices to continue into 2026,” said John Graham, a finance professor at Duke Fuqua School of Business and academic director of the survey. “In this quarter’s survey, we find evidence of continued high price growth, with the median firm expecting the prices of their products and services to increase by 3.5 percent in 2026.”
The report indicates that companies expect moderate employment growth next year. The median company plans to increase its number of full-time employees by 1.7 percent in 2026, consistent with recent surveys. Fifteen percent of firms plan to reduce their workforce, while 26 percent will keep employment flat and 59 percent anticipate hiring more staff. Wages are projected to rise by about 3 percent.
Expectations for real GDP growth stand at an increase of 1.9 percent in 2026, similar to forecasts made last quarter. The CFO Optimism Index for the overall economy declined from 62.9 last quarter to 60.2 this quarter on a scale from zero to one hundred; optimism regarding individual firms has also dropped among large companies.
AI investment is expected to expand notably among small businesses next year. In 2025, nearly 78 percent of large companies (those with at least five hundred employees) invested in AI technology compared with only 48 percent of small firms during the same period. However, approximately eighty percent of small businesses plan AI investments in 2026. According to surveyed CFOs, these investments are expected to boost worker productivity, improve decision-making speed and accuracy, enhance customer satisfaction, and allow employees to focus on higher-value work. The majority do not expect AI adoption to significantly affect headcount or result in measurable cost savings next year.
Further details about The CFO Survey as well as historical data can be accessed at www.cfosurvey.org.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond is one of twelve regional Reserve Banks working alongside the Board of Governors as part of the U.S central banking system.
