The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond announced on Mar. 25 that the outlook for the U.S. economy improved among financial decision-makers in the first quarter of 2026, based on results from The CFO Survey conducted with Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The survey, which included responses from 473 chief financial officers between Feb. 17 and March 5, found that expectations for gross domestic product growth and business revenue over the next year remained steady despite ongoing worries about tariffs and economic uncertainty.
This information is important because it provides insight into how businesses are planning for the future amid persistent challenges such as trade policy shifts, labor market issues, and technological changes.
Sonya Ravindranath Waddell, vice president and economist with the Richmond Fed, said: “The February employment report might have been soft, but business expectations for both demand and hiring in 2026 held up among respondents.” Waddell added: “Most firms expected demand to increase in the next 12 months and reported continued hiring, albeit more for replacement than for new positions. Very few firms expected declining demand or a need to lay off workers.”
Tariffs and trade policy were named as top concerns by survey participants for a fifth consecutive quarter. Other major issues included labor quality or availability, sales demand, and general uncertainty. Investment intentions remained similar to those recorded in late 2025; about one-third of companies planned investments in structures while nearly two-thirds intended to invest in equipment—mainly for replacement or increasing capacity—with some seeking to reduce reliance on labor through automation.
Surveyed CFOs also shared their perspectives on artificial intelligence (AI), indicating continued investment growth in AI technologies during 2026. Companies generally anticipated productivity gains from AI but did not expect significant job losses due to automation; larger firms predicted a shift toward more skilled technical roles rather than routine clerical work.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond has Tom Barkin serving as president and chief executive officer according to its official website. The bank connects with communities through efforts focused on economic education and development according to its official website. It operates within the broader Federal Reserve System representing Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, District of Columbia, and most of West Virginia as part of the Fifth District according to its official website. The institution works toward maintaining a stable financial system through central banking operations according to its official website.
Looking ahead, further details from this quarterly survey can be accessed at www.cfosurvey.org.
