Global investment firm Carlyle has released its own set of U.S. economic indicators, aiming to provide timely economic insights during the ongoing federal government shutdown that has interrupted the publication of official data such as last week’s jobs report.
Carlyle’s indicators draw from operational data across its global portfolio, which includes 277 active companies, 694 real estate investments, and nearly 730,000 employees. The firm’s analysis covers key areas such as GDP growth, consumer spending, inflation, residential construction, and business investment.
“Corporate spending, particularly in technology and AI infrastructure, continues to power growth while household consumption ends the quarter on a high note. Combined, this suggests a U.S. economy growing faster than estimates of its long-term potential. With one of the largest private company data sets, Carlyle can provide timely insights that help investors and policymakers navigate these dynamics when official data is unavailable,” said Jason Thomas, Head of Global Research & Investment Strategy at Carlyle.
According to Carlyle’s findings for September:
– Employers added 17,000 jobs.
– U.S. economic growth is estimated at a 2.7% annualized rate.
– Real private residential construction spending fell by 2.5% compared to the previous year.
– Business investment increased by 4.8% on a three-month moving average seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, driven mainly by technology and AI-related expenditures.
– Energy prices decreased by 3.8%, while services excluding shelter rose by 3.3%, and durable goods increased by 2.3%.
The proprietary indicators have been calibrated against official series such as GDP and inflation since 2011 so they can serve as reliable proxies when government statistics are not available.
Carlyle is headquartered in Washington, DC and manages $465 billion in assets as of June 30, 2025. The company operates across private equity, credit markets, and other segments with more than 2,300 employees worldwide.
For further information or media inquiries regarding these indicators or Carlyle’s research methodology, contact Brittany Bensaull at +1 (212) 813-4839 or [email protected].
