Concerns about high prices and ongoing economic uncertainty related to trade conflicts continue to affect Canadian consumers, according to the Bank of Canada’s latest Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) for the fourth quarter of 2025. The survey was conducted online between October 30 and November 18, 2025, with follow-up phone interviews from November 21 to 27.
This quarter’s results indicate that more consumers feel at risk of missing debt payments and are slightly more concerned about losing their jobs. Despite these concerns, some respondents believe there is a greater chance than last quarter of finding new employment or voluntarily leaving their current positions.
Expectations for near-term inflation remain higher than before the pandemic, but long-term inflation expectations have eased below pre-pandemic levels. Tariffs are still cited as the main factor driving inflation, though less frequently than in previous quarters.
The CSCE indicator declined slightly this quarter and remains subdued. This decline is attributed to modest deterioration in financial health and household spending intentions, even as labour market conditions showed slight improvement from previously low levels.
Consumers continue to report pessimism about their financial health. One respondent noted, “Almost everybody’s living on credit…. It’s something that’s going to be detrimental for households.” Many link their financial worries to a perceived higher risk of job loss, especially among those working in sectors reliant on trade with the United States. Another respondent commented on tariffs: “The worst thing about the tariffs is the uncertainty.… Big businesses aren’t going to invest in anything big now because of uncertainty, and that affects jobs.”
While there was a slight rise in the CSCE labour market index this quarter, it remains well below pre-pandemic levels. Consumers reported an increased likelihood both of finding a job and losing one. Those unemployed for over a year most often cited their skills or experience as barriers to re-employment; those unemployed for less time also mentioned concerns about wages and overall economic outlook.
Spending plans among households remain weak. A participant said, “It’s definitely tough for my family, and we have to budget more appropriately. We look for a discount and have to be more strategic—I purchase less wants and more needs.” High prices, economic uncertainty, and elevated housing costs remain the top barriers to spending. While many prioritize buying Canadian-made goods due to trade tensions with the U.S., three-quarters are unwilling to pay more than an additional 10% for domestic products. As one consumer explained: “We try to buy Canadian products as much as we can, but in many cases, it depends on the price difference.”
Consumers’ perceptions of current inflation—and their one- and two-year-ahead expectations—remain above pre-pandemic averages. However, long-term inflation expectations have softened since last quarter. Tariffs continue to be seen as influencing inflation; three-quarters of those who believe tariffs impact inflation expect these effects will persist for more than one year but fewer than five years.
Awareness of recent government actions appears linked with lower inflation expectations: consumers who knew that counter-tariffs were removed on September 1, 2025 tended to expect lower future inflation rates compared with those unaware of this policy change. Still, most do not anticipate falling prices after tariff removal. One respondent stated: “I’ve never seen prices go down. With the tariffs gone, companies will stop raising prices and leave it at what it is.”
The Bank of Canada aims to maintain low and stable inflation while ensuring currency stability and promoting economic resilience through its monetary policy oversight (official website). Tiff Macklem has served as Governor since June 3, 2020 (official website). The organization also manages payment systems (official website) and collaborates with university students through educational initiatives such as monetary policy simulations (official website).
The CSCE gathers Canadians’ views on inflation, labour markets, and household finances each quarter. The report summarizes opinions expressed by survey respondents but does not necessarily reflect official views of the Bank of Canada.
