Inflation expectations among U.S. business leaders have declined for the first quarter of 2026, according to the Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations (SoFIE) conducted by the Cleveland Fed’s Center for Inflation Research.
CEOs and top executives surveyed in January 2026 indicated they expect inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), to be 3.1 percent over the next 12 months. This figure is lower than the 3.3 percent expectation reported in October 2025.
The SoFIE survey collects data each quarter from a broad panel of firms in both manufacturing and services sectors. The information is considered important because business leaders’ views on inflation can influence their pricing decisions, which may affect overall inflation trends.
The survey measures expected CPI inflation over the next year and, once annually, gathers additional insights on average CPI inflation projections for five years, recent CPI inflation experiences, perceptions about the Federal Reserve’s target rate, and estimates of the likelihood that annual CPI inflation will exceed 5 percent.
More details about SoFIE are available at Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations (clevelandfed.org).
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland operates as one of twelve regional banks within the Federal Reserve System and represents Ohio, western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky, and northern West Virginia official website. The bank supports economic resilience and mobility for low- and moderate-income communities within its district official website. It also works to maintain stability, integrity, and efficiency across national monetary and payment systems official website.
With headquarters in Cleveland and branches in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh official website, the bank participates in setting national monetary policy through its president’s involvement with the Federal Open Market Committee official website. Beth M. Hammack currently serves as president and chief executive officer official website.
Contact: Chuck Soder at chuck.soder@clev.frb.org or 216.672.2798
