The Bank of Canada has released the results of its Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations for the second quarter of 2025. The survey, conducted from April 24 to May 15, 2025, with follow-up interviews from May 20 to 26, 2025, indicates a decline in consumer confidence due to ongoing trade conflicts and related uncertainties.
The CSCE indicator, which measures Canadian consumers’ opinions on spending plans, the labor market, and personal finances, fell this quarter. Consumers have become more cautious about their spending intentions amid fears of job loss and economic uncertainty. Many are prioritizing spending on Canadian goods and vacations within Canada.
“Tariffs are impacting my job a little bit. They are affecting my industry a lot, and many companies are laying off their employees,” said an employee of a manufacturing company during follow-up interviews.
Consumers’ inflation expectations have remained stable since the first quarter increase but remain above pre-pandemic averages. There is an expectation that tariffs will lead to significant increases in motor vehicle prices over the next year. “With tariffs being brought about, it makes me think that things may not be better in the short term,” one respondent noted.
Approximately two-thirds of consumers expect a recession within the next year due to trade conflicts. Many respondents believe these conflicts harm the economy: “Hard to predict what will happen with the tariff situation in the future,” one person stated.
The survey reveals that consumers plan to cut back on discretionary spending and are willing to pay slightly more for Canadian-made goods compared to US-made products. “I’m going to do what works for my wallet,” another respondent commented regarding buying decisions.
The Bank of Canada provides additional data and charts on its survey data page.
